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The short answer
In October 2026 a 364-day Nigerian T-bill stop rate was 15.85% and a 52-week US Treasury bill yielded about 4.41%. For someone who measures results in dollars, that gap disappears if the naira weakens by roughly 11% over the year; beyond that, the US bill comes out ahead.
Headline naira yields look generous next to US rates. But if you earn and spend in dollars, the number that matters is what you get back in dollars. That depends on two things: the naira interest rate and what happens to the exchange rate while your money is in naira. This page puts the two side by side with real October 2026 figures and labelled example exchange rates.
The two rates, as at October 2026
| Instrument | Rate | Date and source |
|---|---|---|
| Nigerian Treasury bill, 364 days | 15.85% stop rate | Auction of 7 October 2026, reported by Nairametrics |
| US Treasury bill, 52 weeks | 4.41% coupon equivalent (4.22% bank discount) | 23 October 2026, US Treasury daily bill rates |
| Nigerian headline inflation | 14.63% year on year | September 2026, NBS via Voice of Nigeria |
| Official market rate (indicative) | About ₦1,333 to $1 | 21 October 2026, Techeconomy |
These figures move. For today's numbers, check the DMO and CBN auction results for Nigerian bills, the US Treasury's daily rates page, and the CBN for the official exchange rate. The history of Nigerian bill rates is in our T-bill stop rate guide and the naira's path in the official exchange rate history.
The break-even depreciation
The calculation is simple. One dollar invested in the US grows to 1.0441 dollars. One dollar converted to naira at the starting rate grows to 1.1585 times as many naira. For the naira route to match the dollar route, the exchange rate at the end can weaken by no more than 1.1585 ÷ 1.0441, which is about 1.1096, or roughly 11%. Starting from ₦1,333, that is an end rate of about ₦1,479.
Worked example: $10,000 for one year
Ngozi in Atlanta has $10,000. Option A: a 52-week US bill at 4.41%, ending at $10,441. Option B: convert at ₦1,333 to get ₦13,330,000, earn 15.85% to reach ₦15,442,805, then convert back. The result depends entirely on the end rate (all end rates below are examples, not forecasts):
| End exchange rate (example) | Naira change | Dollars back | Versus US bill ($10,441) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ₦1,250 | Naira stronger | $12,354.24 | +$1,913.24 |
| ₦1,333 | Unchanged | $11,585.00 | +$1,144.00 |
| ₦1,480 | About 11% weaker | $10,434.33 | −$6.67 (about even) |
| ₦1,600 | About 20% weaker | $9,651.75 | −$789.25 |
| ₦1,750 | About 31% weaker | $8,824.46 | −$1,616.54 |
Add the cost of converting twice
Every naira round trip costs something: the spread between buy and sell rates and any fee. If you assume a 1% cost each way (an example, not any provider's price), the unchanged-rate result drops from $11,585.00 to $11,354.46, and at ₦1,480 it drops to $10,226.68, now clearly behind the US bill. Ask your provider for the full cost, rate and fee together, before you convert.
Tax changes the picture again
For a US person, interest on both bills is taxable income on the federal return, and converting naira back to dollars can have its own US tax consequences, so ask your preparer how to track it. Nigerian tax on T-bill income for non-residents is a separate question to confirm with a preparer. Our guide to Nigerian T-bill interest and US tax sets out what is known.
Real return for a naira spender
If your money is meant for naira spending at home, such as a parent's upkeep, school fees or building, the dollar comparison matters less. The relevant test is the naira yield against Nigerian inflation: 15.85% against 14.63% in the figures above, a thin real return of about one percentage point before tax and costs. The broader question of whether to hold naira at all is in should a Nigerian in the US invest in naira, and a deeper look at bills alone in Nigerian vs US Treasury bills.
What could move the result
Three things can change the answer within a year. First, the naira rate itself: bill rates fell across all tenors after the CBN cut its policy rate in September 2026, so a bill bought later may pay less than the figures here. Second, the exchange rate, which has no fixed path and can move sharply in either direction; the table shows how wide the range of outcomes is. Third, timing: a 364-day bill locks the naira rate but leaves the exchange rate open until maturity, so you cannot know your dollar result in advance. If you need a known dollar amount on a known date, for example a tuition payment in the US, the naira route does not give you that certainty. If you need naira on a known date, for example a building stage at home, the risk runs the other way: holding dollars and converting late exposes you to a stronger dollar price for naira you were always going to spend.
Where Pryme fits
If you do convert, Swap shows the rate and the fee on separate lines before you approve, so you can run the round-trip cost yourself. See Swap.
Questions people ask
How much can the naira fall before US bills beat Nigerian bills?
With a 15.85% naira rate and a 4.41% US rate, about 11% over a year, before tax and conversion costs. The exact figure changes whenever either rate moves.
Are Nigerian T-bill rates real returns?
Not after inflation. In September 2026 headline inflation was 14.63%, so a 15.85% bill left a real return of roughly one percentage point before tax and costs.
Where do I check today's US Treasury bill rate?
The US Treasury publishes daily bill rates on its interest rate data pages. Use the coupon equivalent figure to compare with an annual yield.
Does currency conversion cost change the result much?
Yes. A 1% cost each way in the example cut the dollar result by about $230 at an unchanged exchange rate. Always check the full rate and fee before converting.
Sources
- Nairametrics: DMO raises N968.47 billion as 364-day stop rate falls to 15.85% (7 Oct 2026) · accessed Oct 2026
- US Treasury: Daily Treasury bill rates, October 2026 · accessed Oct 2026
- Techeconomy: Dollar to naira exchange rate today, 21 October 2026 · accessed Oct 2026
- Voice of Nigeria: Nigeria's headline inflation drops to 14.63 per cent (16 Oct 2026) · accessed Oct 2026
This article is general information, not financial, legal or tax advice. Products described are provided under the terms on this site and are subject to regulation and eligibility.